The Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Eprints Archive

HIV/Aids epidemic in India and predicting the impact of the national response: mathematical modeling and analysis

Rao, Arni S.R. Srinivasa and Thomas, K. and Sudhakar, K. and Maini, P. K. (2009) HIV/Aids epidemic in India and predicting the impact of the national response: mathematical modeling and analysis. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineerig, 6 . pp. 779-813.

This is the latest version of this item.



After two phases of AIDS control activities in India, the third phase of the National AIDS Control Programme (NACP III) was launched in July 2007. Our focus here is to predict the number of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHA) in India so that the results can assist the NACP III planning team to determine appropriate targets to be activated during the project period (2007-2012). We have constructed a dynamical model that captures the mixing patterns between susceptibles and infectives in both low-risk and high-risk groups in the population. Our aim is to project the HIV estimates by taking into account general interventions for susceptibles and additional interventions, such as targeted interventions among high risk groups, provision of anti-retroviral therapy, and behavior change among HIV-positive individuals. Continuing the current level of interventions in NACP II, the model estimates there will be 5.06 million PLHA by the end of 2011. If 50 percent of the targets in NACP III are achieved by the end of the above period then about 0.8 million new infections will be averted in that year. The current status of the epidemic appears to be less severe compared to the trend observed in the late 1990s. The projections based on the second phase and the third phase of the NACP indicate prevention programmes which are directed towards the general and high-risk populations, and HIV-positive individuals will determine the decline or stabilization of the epidemic. Model based results are derived separately for the revised HIV estimates released in 2007. We perform a Monte Carlo procedure for sensitivity analysis of parameters and model validation. We also predict a positive role of implementation of anti-retroviral therapy treatment of 90 percent of the eligible people in the country. We present methods for obtaining disease progression parameters using convolution approaches. We also extend our models to age-structured populations.

Item Type:Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:epidemic modeling, anti-retroviral therapy, behavioral interventions
Subjects:A - C > Biology and other natural sciences
Research Groups:Centre for Mathematical Biology
ID Code:830
Deposited By: Philip Maini
Deposited On:02 Oct 2009 08:01
Last Modified:29 May 2015 18:31

Available Versions of this Item

Repository Staff Only: item control page