Rao, Arni S.R. Srinivasa and Thomas, K and Sudhakar, K and Maini, P K (2009) HIV/Aids epidemic in India and predicting the impact of the national response: mathematical modeling and analysis. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineerig, 6 . pp. 779813.
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Abstract
After two phases of AIDS control activities in India, the third phase of the National AIDS Control Programme (NACP III) was launched in July 2007. Our focus here is to predict the number of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHA) in India so that the results can assist the NACP III planning team to determine appropriate targets to be activated during the project period (20072012). We have constructed a dynamical model that captures the mixing patterns between susceptibles and infectives in both lowrisk and highrisk groups in the population. Our aim is to project the HIV estimates by taking into account general interventions for susceptibles and additional interventions, such as targeted interventions among high risk groups, provision of antiretroviral therapy, and behavior change among HIVpositive individuals. Continuing the current level of interventions in NACP II, the model estimates there will be 5.06 million PLHA by the end of 2011. If 50 percent of the targets in NACP III are achieved by the end of the above period then about 0.8 million new infections will be averted in that year. The current status of the epidemic appears to be less severe compared to the trend observed in the late 1990s. The projections based on the second phase and the third phase of the NACP indicate prevention programmes which are directed towards the general and highrisk populations, and HIVpositive individuals will determine the decline or stabilization of the epidemic. Model based results are derived separately for the revised HIV estimates released in 2007. We perform a Monte Carlo procedure for sensitivity analysis of parameters and model validation. We also predict a positive role of implementation of antiretroviral therapy treatment of 90 percent of the eligible people in the country. We present methods for obtaining disease progression parameters using convolution approaches. We also extend our models to agestructured populations.
Item Type:  Article 

Uncontrolled Keywords:  epidemic modeling, antiretroviral therapy, behavioral interventions 
Subjects:  A  C > Biology and other natural sciences 
Research Groups:  Centre for Mathematical Biology 
ID Code:  827 
Deposited By:  Philip Maini 
Deposited On:  29 Sep 2009 07:17 
Last Modified:  29 May 2015 18:31 
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 HIV/Aids epidemic in India and predicting the impact of the national response: mathematical modeling and analysis. (deposited 29 Sep 2009 07:17) [Currently Displayed]
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