Uncertain interest rate modelling

Abstract

In this thesis, we introduce a non-probabilistic model for the short-term interest rate. The key concepts involved in this new approach are the non-diffusive nature of the short rate process and the uncertainty in the model parameters. The model assumes the worst possible outcome for the short rate path when pricing a fixed-income product (from the point of view of the holder) and differs in many important ways from the traditional approaches of fully deterministic or stochastic rates. In this new model, delta hedging and unique pricing play no role, nor does any market price of risk term appear. We present the model and explore the analytical and numerical solutions of the associated partial differential equation. We show how to optimally hedge the interest rate risk of a fixed-income portfolio and price and hedge common and exotic fixed-income products. Finally, we consider extensions to the model and present conclusions and areas for further research.