The Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Eprints Archive

Wildlife disease elimination and 1 density dependence

Potapov, A. and Merrill, E. H. and Lewis, M. A. (2012) Wildlife disease elimination and 1 density dependence. Proceedings of the Royal Society B . (Submitted)

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Abstract

Disease control by managers is a crucial response to emerging wildlife epidemics, yet the means of control may be limited by the method of disease transmission. In particular, it is widely held that population reduction, while effective for controlling diseases that are subject to density-dependent transmission, is ineffective for controlling diseases that are subject to frequency-dependent transmission. We investigate control for horizontally transmitted diseases with frequency-dependent transmission where the control is via nonselective (for infected animals) culling or harvesting and the population can compensate through density-dependent recruitment or survival. Using a mathematical model, we show that culling or harvesting can eradicate the disease, even when transmission dynamics are frequency-dependent. E 24 radication can be achieved under frequency-dependent transmission when density-dependent population regulation induces compensatory growth of new, healthy individuals, which has the net effect of reducing disease prevalence by dilution. We also show that if harvest is used simultaneously with vaccination and there is high enough transmission coefficient, application of both controls may be less efficient than when vaccination alone is used. We illustrate the effects of these control approaches on disease prevalence using assumed parameters for chronic wasting disease in deer where the disease is transmitted directly among deer and through the environment.

Item Type:Article
Subjects:D - G > General
Research Groups:Oxford Centre for Collaborative Applied Mathematics
ID Code:1490
Deposited By:Peter Hudston
Deposited On:02 Mar 2012 07:44
Last Modified:08 Oct 2012 13:59

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